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In a continuing theme of diversify my cash holdings into currencies other than the $US, I used the opportunity of Yen correcting about 8% over the past 2 weeks to buy into FXY at $95.39. FXY, a CurrencyShares Yen Trust, is the easiest, lowest cost and most liquid instrument that I know of for virtually converting $US into Japanese Yen. FXY has current support at around $95 per trust share.

Another reason that I chose to go into Yen at this time is that Japan is finally starting to see inflation. According to Agence France-Presse, decade high inflation of 1.2% in March was reported just last Friday. The rise in inflation is likely to force Bank of Japan to raise interest rates well before the Fed is likely to contemplate such moves. Even with rates in Japan as low as they are now, Japanese started to repatriate cash earlier this year. According to Bloomberg, those that did not lost 7 percent on US debt in the first quarter - the worst such loss in a decade.

All in all, I expect $US to weaken further long term, as consumer credit card debt and commercial construction loans come to limelight. More on this later...

I closed my FXY position at $106.59 today and realized a gain of 11.7% (ignoring commissions) in 7 months on this position. I see the Yen as being fairly valued vs. the $US at this point. Its prospects for appreciating further are murky, clouded by the uncertainties on the relative sizes of inflationary measures undertaken by the two countries to prop up their economies. Japan Central Bank is also likely to act to keep the Yen from appreciating further and thereby hurting exporters, who are a very large component of the Japanese GDP.

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Are you currently bullish or bearish on the economy and the stock market?:

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